|
How a "Brummie" Came Up With A Lay System But Was Ignored By Your's Truly For 4 Months...
...You Will Wish I Hadn't Ignored Him And Shown You These Sooner! If Lay Betting is your thing then read on to see how Greg has made it his "Thing"...
I get systems sent to me all the time from different people…
…Mostly they don’t work out for one reason or another.
Gregory (who calls himself "Greg") started sending me these around 4 months ago.
After I agreed he could use our system to record the selections.
Now after I say “yes” three things tend to happen.
1. They don't actually send any selections (I don’t know why but it’s not my job to chase people).
2. They send them to me for a few weeks (maybe even a couple of months) and they start to lose and again I stop hearing from them.
3. Unusually like "Greg" they keep sending them day after day no matter what happens.
To be honest I feel a little guilty about Greg because I didn’t really take much notice of the results.
I don't tend to bother anyway for the first couple of months because as I said…
…They tend to disappear after a while.
It was only after 4 months Greg sent me an email…
“Hi Malcolm
Just checking in on the selections I have been sending you.
What do you think?
Greg”
Now luckily, I tend to get people who send us tips to use our “Tipster in a Box” system so all the selections are recorded and verified.
And because Greg sent a pretty accurate Spreadsheet originally...
...I was able to load them into the system as well
(although I really only have his word for the selections before April). After reviewing the results I had to admit that Greg really did look like he had been sending me some pretty good selections.
So, I rang him to find out a bit more about him.
“Greg the Brummie”.
So Greg is from Birmingham but actually doesn’t live there anymore.
But he still has a great “Brummie” accent :- )
(Don’t ask me to try and imitate it because it wouldn’t sound very good.)
Anyway Greg was telling me like the rest of us he has gone through 100’s of tipsters and systems but as usual didn’t make any money.
Lay betting has always interested him but at the same time he worried about prices.
“The challenge with lay betting” Greg said…
...Is finding a balance between strike rate and price.
You don’t want to be risking a lot of points per selections...
...But at the same time the lower the price the more difficult it is to keep the strike rate at a level that is acceptable.
A higher price doesn’t have to mean big losers and in this case, I have managed to keep the average losing odds around 4.”
So I asked Greg about the selection process and what he could tell me about it.
“Like most people I have probably tried everything including Trainers.
I have some very complex systems that dive into all sorts of statistics.
But laying has to be about consistency because you can lose a lot of money very quickly.
Trainers & Jockeys are just not consistent enough and you can be surprised so easily by unexpected wins.
So instead I use form reading and 3 little ratings systems I came up with...
...Which I run across the race cards every day.
Some days there are a lot of selections (5 or 6) and others there are none at all.
But on average using a BSP of 11 as our guide there is roughly 70 a month.”
He also went on to say.
“There are a few checks I make before I finally have them ready between 8.30 and 9am.”
Greg did share with the process but of course that is a secret kept between him and me.
But as a system developer myself it was interesting to see the simplicity of the 3 ideas he used.
Lets have a look at some statistics.
Month by Month BSP (after 5% commission)
 Here some more BSP based statistics.
 Since our initial phone call we have spoke a few times to discuss what Greg wants to do with them.
This is where I can get frustrated with “Tipsters” because often they think that they should be selling them for £57 or more a month (as we know many of them do).
The thing is…
You can understand it in one way.
They have spent the time researching & testing to come up with the system in the first place.
They are going to have to find the selections every day and add them into our “Tipster Box system”.
So £57 a month is not bad if it continues to perform.
But here is my argument.
“You cannot guarantee results”
At the end of the day this is gambling and anything can happen.
So, because you can’t guarantee results you can’t really charge for them.
Which means we can only really charge for delivering the selections to you every day and the work involved to do this.
Many of my own systems are automated so I tend to charge between £47 and £67 for 3 months blocks...
...Lets face it if your serious 3 months is normally your trial period.
This is a bit different though…
Greg has to manually make the selections and then add them to our system so that you can get them by email, URL & bot link.
So being honest I need a small cut for supplying the systems and Greg obviously wants paying for doing the work and supplying the selections…
…Which could in turn make you some “cash-a-room” :- )
Greg was also adamant about numbers…
He really didn’t want the selections ending up in the hands of loads of people.
In fact, even I was really surprised by his limit.
Normally I get figures of “200 to 500” thrown at me…
…Greg is nowhere near these numbers…and I mean nowhere near them.
He wants to earn some money to pay for a couple of “Toys”, but he is acutely aware of the price issue.
Anyway, after a lot of “toing and froing” we came up with a figure which if you are serious about following the selections should represent really amazing value.
But it won’t suit every ones pockets.
Sorry but this is the best way to keep numbers down!
So what do you get…
1. Full results sheet including day to day selections (Not available to non members).
This sheet is unique in that is gives you results including 5 different price points throughout the morning allowing you to decide on the best time and maximum price for you to bet at.
2. Every day (7 days a week) you will receive an email (between 8.30 and 9.00) with the days selections (if there are any).
3. A member’s page which will include the daily selections and a “bot” link that you can use with the GHBot or others.
Greg has decided he want to do this in two stages...
First 25 to sign-up will pay Just £57 for a full 90 Days of selections.
(A kind of early Bird offer). He will then monitor the prices and results for the next 4 weeks before opening again (Probably at a higher price). Greg's Lay's Just £57.00
(90 days of tips First 25. Less than 64p a day) (This is a one off non refundable payment. We do not automatically re-bill but you will be invited to re-join for another 90 days just before your membership expires) Questions you may have.
Q. What time are the selections normally available?
A. The email is set to go out at around 8.30 am to 9am each day as long as Greg gets everything he needs by then.
Q. Will I automatically get charged after 90 days?
A. No this is a "one off payment" today with no automated re-bill. But we will let you know close to when we re-open if you want first choice to join again.
We don't expect the price to go up but that will depend on our own costs changing. Q. Can I trust automation?
A. Our systems are automated in a number of ways that we have tested and refined over the last 6 years.
1. Our horse racing feed comes in from a proper source. We don't scrape sites we pay for all our data daily.
2. Greg using our system to add his selections so there is no can be no doubt the selections were as you were shown in the email.
3. Greg has also given the system details to me so that in the event he isn't very well of cant get to a computer I can still run the systems.
Q. What does "The past doesn't equal the future" mean?
A. "Greg's Lay's" has shown profit for many months...but that is the past. No one can say for sure what will happen tomorrow. The statistics point towards it being a stable system but again that is based on past results.
All the statistics point towards Greg's lays as being pretty consistent...
...But "The past doesn't necessarily equal the future"
Q. Why cant I have "Greg's Lay's" on a trial?
A. If Greg was selling these tips on results he could easily charger £30, £40 or £50 a month.
As it is he has decided (with a twist of his arm) to only ask for the "Labour costs of finding the selections daily and adding them to our systems. Greg is not guaranteeing the results (although we totally believe he can deliver) so there is no need for a trial.
It's really down to if you think it is worth paying Greg to get the selections to you daily.
Be clear though I am sure if the selections continue to perform he will want to put his costs up!
Just in case you don't know me...
 My name is Malcolm and I have created a number of popular horse racing software titles.
Including:
|
|
Please Gamble Responsibly http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/ Bluebell Data. Registered office: 29 bath road, Swindon, Wilts.SN1 4AS READ THIS - IT'S IMPORTANT: Disclaimer: This guide /report is for information only. In no way we are advising you to act on the guide /report or to bet on live markets. Please seek proper advice if you are unsure what to do. Unmatched bets, prices out of range and other factors may influence your results compared to ours so we can in no way guarantee that you will achieve similar results. In fact your results could be worse.
Please see Betfair’s information on how they match bets. Matched bets can be influenced by timing, stake amounts and other factors. Online or off line betting is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with betting. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the information on this guide /report/article will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular betting program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical betting does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical betting record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual betting. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular betting program in spite of betting losses are material points which can also adversely affect betting results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific betting program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual betting results. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL BETTING. ALSO, SINCE THE BETS HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED BETTING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. |